@article {271,
	title = {Drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Cantareira System Protected Area : A prospective analysis of the implementation of public policies},
	journal = {Biota Neotropica},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2020},
	month = {05/2020},
	type = {Article},
	abstract = {The lack of implementation of well-designed public policies aimed at the conservation of natural ecosystems has resulted, at a global level, in the decline of ecosystem functioning and, consequently, of the contributions they make to people. The poor enforcement of important environmental legislation in Brazil - for instance, the {\textquotedblleft}Atlantic Forest Law{\textquotedblright} (Law n.11.428/2006) and the {\textquotedblleft}Forest Code{\textquotedblright} (Law n.12.651/2012) - could compromise the overall maintenance of ecosystems and the services they provide. To explore the implications of different levels of federal laws{\textquoteright} enforcement within the Cantareira System Protected Area (PA) - a PA in southeastern Brazil that provides fresh water for 47\% of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area -, we developed a conceptual framework to identify indirect and direct drives of biodiversity and ecosystem changes. We also projected four land-use scenarios to 2050 to test the effects of deforestation control and forest restoration practices on biodiversity and ecosystem services maintenance: the {\textquotedblleft}business-as-usual{\textquotedblright} scenario (BAU), which assumes that all trends in land-use cover changes observed in the past will continue in the future, and three alternative exploratory scenarios considering the Atlantic Forest Law implementation, the partial implementation of the Forest Code and the full implementation of the Forest Code. Using the land-use maps generated for each scenario, we assessed the impacts of land-use changes on biodiversity conservation and soil retention. Our results revealed all alternative scenarios could increase biodiversity conservation (by 7\%; 12\%; and 12\%, respectively), reduce soil loss (by 24.70\%; 34.70\%; and 38.12\%, respectively) and sediment exportation to water (by 27.47\%; 55.06\%; and 59.28\%, respectively), when compared to the BAU scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of restoring and conserving native vegetation for the maintenance and improvement of biodiversity conservation and for the provision of ecosystem services.},
	keywords = {Biodiversity, Cantareira System Protected Area, Ecosystem services, GLOBIO, InVEST, Modeling, Scenarios},
	issn = {1676-0611},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0915 },
	url = {https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext\&pid=S1676-06032020000500201},
	author = {Viviane Dib and Marco Aur{\'e}lio Nalon and Nino Tavares Amazonas and Cristina Yuri Vidal and Iv{\'a}n A. Ortiz-Rodr{\'\i}guez and Jan Dan{\v e}k and Ma{\'\i}ra Formis de Oliveira and Paola Alberti and Rafaela Aparecida da Silva and Ra{\'\i}za Salom{\~a}o Precinoto and Taciana Figueiredo Gomes}
}
@article {264,
	title = {Human migration: the big data perspective},
	journal = {International Journal of Data Science and Analytics},
	year = {2020},
	pages = {1{\textendash}20},
	abstract = {How can big data help to understand the migration phenomenon? In this paper, we try to answer this question through an analysis of various phases of migration, comparing traditional and novel data sources and models at each phase. We concentrate on three phases of migration, at each phase describing the state of the art and recent developments and ideas. The first phase includes the journey, and we study migration flows and stocks, providing examples where big data can have an impact. The second phase discusses the stay, i.e. migrant integration in the destination country. We explore various data sets and models that can be used to quantify and understand migrant integration, with the final aim of providing the basis for the construction of a novel multi-level integration index. The last phase is related to the effects of migration on the source countries and the return of migrants.},
	author = {Alina Sirbu and Andrienko, Gennady and Andrienko, Natalia and Boldrini, Chiara and Conti, Marco and Giannotti, Fosca and Guidotti, Riccardo and Bertoli, Simone and Jisu Kim and Muntean, Cristina Ioana and others}
}
@article {272,
	title = {Spatiotemporal effects of Hurricane Ivan on an endemic epiphytic orchid: 10 years of follow-up},
	journal = {Plant Ecology \& Diversity },
	volume = {13, 2020},
	year = {2020},
	month = {10/2019},
	type = {Article},
	abstract = {Background: Hurricanes have a strong influence on the ecological dynamics and structure of tropical forests. Orchid populations are especially vulnerable to these perturbations due to their canopy exposure and lack of underground storage organs and seed banks.

Aims: We evaluated the effects of Hurricane Ivan on the population of the endemic epiphytic orchid Encyclia bocourtii to propose a management strategy.

Methods: Using a pre- and post-hurricane dataset (2003{\textendash}2013), we assessed the population asymptotic and transient dynamics. We also identified the individual size-stages that maximise population inertia and E. bocourtii{\textquoteright}s spatial arrangement relative to phorophytes and other epiphytes.

Results: Hurricane Ivan severely affected the survival and growth of individuals of E. bocourtii, and caused an immediate decline of the population growth rate from λ = 1.05 to λ = 0.32, which was buffered by a population reactivity of ρ1 = 1.42. Our stochastic model predicted an annual population decrease of 14\%. We found an aggregated spatial pattern between E. bocourtii and its host trees, and a random pattern relative to other epiphytes.

Conclusion: Our findings suggest that E. bocourtii is not safe from local extinction. We propose the propagation and reintroduction of reproductive specimens, the relocation of surviving individuals, and the establishment of new plantations of phorophytes.
},
	keywords = {Caribbean, cyclones, integral projection models, management strategies, plant population dynamics, stochastic growth rate, transfer functions, transient behaviour},
	issn = {1755-0874},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17550874.2019.1673495},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17550874.2019.1673495},
	author = {Iv{\'a}n A. Ortiz-Rodr{\'\i}guez and Jose Ravent{\'o}s and Ernesto M{\'u}jica and Elaine Gonz{\'a}lez-Hern{\'a}ndez and Ernesto Vega-Pe{\~n}a and Pilar Ortega-Larrocea and Andreu Bonet and Cory Merow}
}
