Marco Malvaldi - Statistical Causality Asking “What if?” to data 1/6 (04/05/2021)

Data Science PhD - Marco Malvaldi - Statistical Causality Asking “What if?” to data 1/6 (04/05/2021)

Short course for the PhD Program in Data Science – Scuola Normale Superiore

Title: Statistical Causality – Asking “What if?” to data
Lecturer: Marco Malvaldi

First lecture: Introduction (Tuesday 4 may, 9:00 – 11:00)
A gentle introduction: forecasting the future, explaining the past
What causes what? A (necessary) philosophical digression
Why you should care about causality: Simpson’s paradox
Elements of probability theory and Bayes’ theorem.
Difference between p(A|B) and p(A|do(B)): spurious correlation - or, selling ice cream do not cause woodfires.
How to define causality: B causes A if p(A|do B) > p(A|B). Is the altitude that causes temperature, or is the cold that causes temperature?
Directed acyclic Graphs - for lazy people, DAG. A DAG is not a Bayesian net.
How to build a DAG. Conditional independence, or: is my DAG correct?

Causal Inference in Statistics by Pearl, Glamour, Jewell
Causality by Pearl
Elements of causal Inference by Janzing, Peters, Scholkopf
On Identifying Causal Effects by Tian, Shpitser
The Do-Calculus Revisited by Pearl
A General Identification Condition for Causal Effects by Tian, Pearl
DAGs: Overview and Motivation by Elwert
Graphical Causal Models by Elwert
Probabilistic evaluation of counterfactual queries by Balke, Pearl
Direct and Indirect Effects, by Pearl
Simpson’s paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates: a mediation analysis of age-related causal effects, by von Kugelgen, Gresele, Scholkopf

About the instructor:
Marco Malvaldi is a popular Italian author of novels, short stories and scientific essays for the general public on popularizing physics-chemistry, computing, mathematics and the scientific aspects of human communication. Malvaldi holds a PhD in chemistry from the University of Pisa (2004) and, beyond a novelist and a teacher, is also an active researcher
in physical chemistry and in sport data analytics. Malvaldi is currently a research collaborator of the department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, focused on causal reasoning, within the European project “Humane-AI-Net”.

Lecture 1/6: -- You are here
Lecture 2/6:
Lecture 3/6:
Lecture 4/6:
Lecture 5/6:
Lecture 6/6:

Zircon - This is a contributing Drupal Theme
Design by WeebPal.